Bitcoin Faces Tests After Record September, Analysts Bullish

Bitcoin (BTC) has just experienced its best September ever, but there was little time to celebrate as bears tried to spoil the "Uptober" that everyone was looking forward to, and increased pressure on Tuesday morning, pulling BTC back below $63,000.

FxPro Senior Market Analyst Alex Kupcsikevich said: "The cryptocurrency market started the week on the defensive, losing 1.2% of its market value in 24 hours to $2.27 trillion, although it is still up 3% compared to a week ago." "With risks surrounding the upcoming employment report and Powell's comments, this drop looks like a short-term profit-taking from the recent wave of gains."

He added: "On the technical side, Bitcoin is under pressure near the upper limit of the downtrend that has been in place for months." "However, we believe this is more of an emotional factor, as we believe breaking through the previous high and the 200-day moving average is an important signal of bullish dominance."

Kupcsikevich emphasized: "Bitcoin is about to have its best September since 2012." "Since the beginning of this month, Bitcoin has risen by more than 11%, in stark contrast to the typical decline of this month. In the wave of global rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the People's Bank of China, the cryptocurrency index has risen by more than 20% after easing financial conditions."

Advertisement

According to analysts at Bitfinex, Bitcoin's recent price movements are the most optimistic since King Crypto set a new high in March.

They wrote: "Since the low of $52,756 on September 6, Bitcoin has soared by 26.2%, breaking through the $65,000 mark and surpassing the previous local high set on August 25." "This increase marks the first time Bitcoin has broken through a local high since March 2024. The timing coincides with early October, which historically has the highest median price increase for Bitcoin, with a median return of 27.7% and an average return of 22.9%."

They added: "These strong historical trends, along with the upcoming fourth quarter, which usually also has the highest average quarterly returns, have bolstered optimism for further gains." "However, despite Bitcoin having regained key on-chain levels, such as the realized price for short-term holders (currently $62,750), there are also warning signs. The spot market buying that has been positive since the local bottom on September 6 has recently leveled off, indicating that the market may be reaching a temporary equilibrium."

They warned: "In addition, Bitcoin open interest (OI) has soared, exceeding $35 billion, a level historically associated with local price peaks." "This raises concerns about potential market overheating, although a moderate correction of 5% to 10% could reset OI without disrupting the overall uptrend."

Bitfinex analysts also emphasized that BTC's current price movement largely reflects the situation in 2020, and if it continues, the market could set a new all-time high before the end of 2024.

They said: "As we enter the next quarter, it is also important to note that BTC is still trading within a very large consolidation range of $50,000 to $68,000." "This is reminiscent of previous halvings, especially 2020."They emphasized: "As mentioned above, in 2020, BTC exhibited a wide range of volatility/decline behavior for about 200-250 days before starting an upward trend in October."

"The rebound led to a significant increase in price, with Bitcoin rising from $11,000 in October 2020 to a peak of $64,829 in April 2021."

Analysts stated: "Based on these multiple historical patterns, if the seasonal trend holds again, we might anticipate Bitcoin to reach an all-time high by the end of the fourth quarter of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025."

"This forecast depends on similar market dynamics and investor sentiment, which have historically accompanied the cycles following the halving."

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $62,285, down 2.35% on the 24-hour chart.